Topics: Carrier Solutions, Transportation Industry, Newsletters, Trade Policies, Economic Shifts
With President-elect Trump's renewed tariff plans, many businesses are speeding up imports to beat potential new fees. This "front-loading" of shipments means more volume and likely increases in freight rates and warehouse demand as companies push goods stateside.
This is good news for carriers. However, with global trade policy in flux, uncertainty about the impact tariffs might have on costs is fueling a heated debate on LinkedIn.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller suggests tariffs can potentially protect U.S. interests and lower prices. However, Jason Miller, Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University, disputes this, arguing that tariffs will raise consumer prices. He cites economic studies showing that tariffs in 2018 led to higher domestic prices, reduced choices, and did little for U.S. manufacturing jobs. The debate highlights an essential point for carriers: policy shifts bring uncertainty. Keep an eye on this one—things are clearly shifting, and being ready to adapt and leverage flexible solutions will keep you ahead of the game.
“Leave the Liquid Gold to Me” and Other Trucking Policy Shifts to Watch
“Bobby, leave the oil to me—we have more liquid gold than any country in the world.” President-elect Trump’s quip sends a clear signal of his intentions for America's energy resources. Additionally, the appointment of Lee Zeldin to head up the EPA supports the deregulation of emission standards and a more pro-fossil fuel agenda.
A recent article from FreightWaves highlights additional impacts Trump's administration will likely have on the trucking industry. They suggest reducing emissions standards in favor of internal combustion to ease compliance costs. Additionally, you may see a return to Trump-era flexibility, and long-debated speed limiter rules could face indefinite delays. There’s also good news on parking: the Truck Parking Safety Improvement Act may finally get the funding it needs to expand critical spaces for drivers.
While the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E) promises to eliminate waste and cut spending, I would also expect this administration to deliver a more tech-driven approach with the likes of Vance, Ramaswamy, and Musk advising Trump.
Virginia Tech's Push for Safer Roads and Smarter Drivers
As reported by Trucker’s News, The Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) is championing driver education and safety efforts with nearly $1 million in grants from the FMCSA. One initiative focuses on advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), like adaptive cruise control and blind spot warnings, to help truckers embrace technologies designed to prevent crashes and save lives. Training will include videos, a new website, and virtual reality experiences.
Another grant will expand the successful Sharing the Road with Large Trucks program nationwide to teach young drivers how to navigate around semis safely. The grant allows VTTI to expand the program's impact by reaching 90 additional schools and translating the materials into Spanish.
Chris Spear Calls for Unity to Drive Pro-Trucking Policies
Speaking at the ATA Management Conference & Exhibition, ATA President Chris Spear urged the trucking industry to unite as it faces a pivotal moment in shaping pro-trucking policies. “We’re the rock that breaks the wave,” Spear emphasized, calling on members to amplify the industry’s story and drive change.
With 8.5 million workers delivering 11 billion tons of freight across 331 billion miles annually, trucking is the backbone of America’s economy. Spear highlighted key priorities, including commonsense emissions policies, repealing outdated excise taxes, and supporting renewable diesel as a cost-effective, low-emission fuel alternative.
Fed’s Latest Rate Cut: What It Means for Trucking
Trucking Dive reports that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point just two days after the election, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. Citing progress in curbing inflation and a weakening labor market, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy remains resilient.
While the Fed’s rate cut aims to support economic stability, proposed tax cuts and tariffs under the new administration could complicate efforts to keep inflation in check. At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized there’s no immediate rush to lower rates further, stating, 'The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.' For carriers, the lower rates could mean better borrowing conditions for fleet investments, but it’s critical to stay vigilant about cash flow and rising costs as the economic landscape shifts.
2025 Dry Van Spot Rates: The Debate Continues
In case you missed it, Craig Fuller recently declared that the Great Freight Recession has ended, citing rising tender rejection rates as a key indicator of market recovery. However, Jason Miller disagrees again, offering a more measured outlook. He anticipates a 15-20% year-over-year increase in dry van spot rates by the third and fourth quarters of 2025, with corresponding increases in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for general freight trucking. Miller's analysis suggests a gradual recovery, with significant rate increases expected later in 2025.
Time will tell who gets it right, but these differing perspectives from industry experts highlight the complexity of predicting when the freight market will fully recover.
Services PMI®: What Carriers Should Know
Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) October's Services PMI® hit 56%, the highest since mid-2022, signaling strong economic growth across sectors like retail, construction, and transportation. For carriers, this means an increase in freight opportunities as businesses ramp up activity to meet rising demand.
Additionally, ISM's Supplier Deliveries Index climbed to 56.4%. This growth reflects slower delivery times and a clear sign of tightening supply chains. Tightening creates opportunities for carriers to step in with efficient solutions for shippers. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures persist, negatively impacting operational costs and cash flow.
While the economy's growth is promising, ISM’s manufacturing data tells a different story. It fell to 46.5%, signaling contraction for the seventh consecutive month. This softness in manufacturing could mean fewer goods moving through supply chains, negatively impacting freight volumes.
No Signs of Slowing: Cargo Theft Surges Yet Again
As the holiday season heats up, cargo theft is becoming an even bigger headache for carriers. In Q3 2024 alone, 776 incidents were reported, racking up nearly $40 million in losses, according to CargoNet. Electronics are still highly sought-after, and if you're moving freight through California, be advised—nearly half of all reported thefts happened there last quarter.
Theft hotspots include unsecured parking lots and distribution centers, with most incidents happening at night. Rail shipments aren't spared either, as organized crime groups exploit weak security and easy routes for smuggling goods across borders. It's a tough landscape, but awareness is the first step to staying ahead of these threats.
Trucking's Role in Disaster Response: A Critical Lifeline
As back-to-back hurricanes wreaked havoc across the Southeast, we saw firsthand the trucking industry's critical role in delivering life-saving supplies and restoring hope to communities in need. But amidst the destruction, the trucking industry once again showcased its resilience and essential role in recovery.
Truckers were among the first to step up, from transporting critical medical supplies and food to hauling materials for rebuilding efforts. Organizations like the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN) are vital in coordinating these efforts, connecting nonprofit organizations with logistics providers to ensure aid reaches those who need it most.
The scale of destruction caused by Helene alone—impacting railroads, highways, and supply chains—highlights the critical need for strong collaboration across sectors to facilitate efficient recovery efforts. We all owe a big thank you to the trucking industry's unwavering commitment to keeping the wheels turning in its role in helping rebuild lives and communities.
Driving Success Together: The Road Ahead with Amplify by Cass
Keeping a pulse on the wide range of factors that impact the trucking industry isn’t just about staying informed—it’s about staying competitive. From trade policies and regulatory changes to economic indicators like interest rates, everything has a ripple effect on freight demand, operational costs, and profitability. Add in challenges like cargo theft, natural disasters, and evolving technology, and it’s a lot to juggle.
At Cass, we hope to foster a healthier financial ecosystem within the supply chain. We believe that through collaboration and technology integration, we can help carriers overcome industry challenges and improve cash flow to enhance performance and relationships. Amplify by Cass empowers you with the tools, insights, and support you need to survive today’s trucking landscape and thrive in the future. Contact Cass today and discover the difference!
