Cass Transportation Index Report August 2024

Dog Days 

Cass Freight Index® - Shipments

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 1.0% m/m in August, after a 3.0% increase in July.

• With similar summer seasonality, the index also increased 1.0% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms from July to August.
• Shipments declined by 1.9% y/y in August after a 1.1% y/y drop in July.

These were the smallest declines in 18 months as goods demand continues to grow slowly, and slowing capacity additions reduce the pressure on for-hire shipments.

After rising 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023. With normal seasonality, the index will fall about 3% y/y in September and 3%-4% for the full year.

See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 2.0% m/m in August. Fuel price declines combined with lower market rates, and the 9.0% y/y decline widened from a 6.2% drop in July.

With shipments up 1.0% m/m, we infer the 2.0% m/m decline in expenditures included a m/m decline of 3.0% in rates in August (see our inferred rates data series below).

• In SA terms, the index fell 1.3% m/m, with shipments up 1.0% and overall rates down 2.3%.  

This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®.

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index fell 19% in 2023, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022. It declined another 16% in 1H’24, and assuming normal seasonal patterns from here, will decline 11%-12% this year. 

Inferred Freight Rates

The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index declined 7.2% y/y in August, after a 5.2% y/y drop in July.

• On a m/m basis, Cass Inferred Freight Rates™ fell 3.0% m/m in July (2.3% SA), reaching a new cycle low with the help of falling diesel prices.  
• Based on the normal seasonal pattern, the y/y decline in this index in September will narrow back to about 5%.
• The normal seasonal pattern from here would leave inferred rates down 8% in 2024, after a 14% drop in 2023.

Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.

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Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.6% m/m in August, a fourth straight monthly decline as the soft market balance persists and overcapacity keeps bids highly competitive.

• The y/y decline of 3.3% widened slightly from 3.2% in July. While this has narrowed from a 15% y/y decline a year ago, it seems unlikely to turn positive quickly.
• As a broad truckload market indicator, this index includes both spot and contract freight. With spot rates steady over the past year, downward pressure on the larger contract market is lessening, but recent slight increases in spot rates are not yet enough to turn contract rates higher. 
  
  
  

See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index

Freight Expectations

This month, the ACT Research Freight Forecast delves into the implications of the U.S. election season for freight markets. Most of the insights are reserved for subscribers, but note that elevated near-term uncertainty and slowing industrial activity are normal short-term features of presidential elections. Almost regardless of the outcome, some combination of near-term softness and post-election relief recovery in freight demand is thus likely.

We generally strive to base our outlook on industry economics, rather than politics, though we incorporate regulations, which are currently a major factor dragging out the cycle downturn and affecting the outlook. But in a regulated industry, no strategy worth its salt can avoid election implications right now, so this month’s report grabs political lightning rods from tariffs to price controls to, yes, EPA regulations, and makes bold predictions about what to expect this election season and beyond.

Our outlook through 2026 is detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. We provide monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.

How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? For 2023, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 96.9% accurate on average for the 24-month forecast period. 

(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)

ACT Research’s 2023 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 96.6% accurate on average over the past 24 months, and 98.5% accurate over the past 12 months. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 143.8 in 2023, precisely in line with our July 2023 estimate. 

Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.

About the Indexes

• Cass Freight Index
• Cass Truckload Linehaul Index