The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index recouped some losses in February, up 10.5% m/m, almost half of which was normal seasonality.
Some of the sequential variation was likely caused by severe January weather, and some of the improvement in February was likely from pre-tariff shipping. This could begin to reverse as soon as March, but normal seasonality would see a narrower 3%-4% y/y drop in March shipments.
Private fleet capacity additions of recent years continue to result in soft for-hire market conditions, exemplified by more news of Amazon building an LTL network in recent months.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and so far, is trending toward another decline in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 3.6% m/m in February. The y/y decline widened to 4.6%, from 4.2% in January.
The y/y decline was more than explained by lower volumes, as shipments fell 5.5%. From these respective changes, we infer rates rose 1.0% y/y in February.
This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index fell 6.2% m/m in February, and 4.9% SA.
After rising 11% in the prior five months (6.3% SA), much of which seemed mix-driven, February inferred rates seem to be a reversion, with lower-cost modes featuring more prominently in the mix this month.
Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index may flatten out in March and is trending toward a flattish result for 2025.
Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 1.2% m/m in February, the sixth straight small increase from a cycle low in August. The index was 4.8% above that August low in February.
This index fell 10% in 2023 and another 3% in 2024. Where it will go in 2025 is a big question, but it is off to a positive start.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
While the outlook is fraught with uncertainty, and freight demand will be challenged by tariffs, we highlight a silver lining for the for-hire freight market amid rising recession risk. Elevated uncertainty may be turning the tide of private fleet capacity additions after a long for-hire downturn.
Even the EPA low-NOx standards initially promulgated by the first Trump administration and planned to go into effect in 2027 are now under review. With significant private fleet pre-buying in preparation for these rules in recent years, the new elevated level of uncertainty is likely to reduce equipment supply. When we throw on another roughly $20k per Class 8 tractor in tariffs, if/when the USMCA exemption ends (currently paused until April 2nd), the resulting supply shock is likely to press freight rates higher.
Our outlook through 2027 is detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? Their 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 98.8% accurate on average from 18 months out. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 139.3 in 2024, precisely in line with our December 2023 estimate.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
