The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index continued to tumble in January, down 5.3% m/m. About half of the decline was normal seasonality, and part was likely worse weather than normal, and unusually in the Southeast.
Private fleet capacity additions continue to pull freight from the for-hire market, and LTL consolidation is also putting pressure on this index.
The normal seasonal pattern would have the index down about 10% y/y in February, but it should be smaller if milder weather continues. Some national fleets that experienced similar declines, like XPO, attributed about 3pps to weather.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and so far is trending toward another decline in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 4.8% m/m in January. The y/y decline widened to 4.2% from 3.4% in December.
The decline in spending was again from shipments, which fell 5.3% m/m. Comparing the changes in shipments and overall spending, we infer rates rose 0.5% m/m in January in the fourth straight price increase.
This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so it is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index rose 0.5% m/m in January, following a 5.1% increase in December, and representing the fifth straight increase. In SA terms, inferred rates were unchanged m/m.
Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index may accelerate further in February and is headed for a modest increase in 2025.
Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 0.6% m/m in January, the fifth straight small increase from a cycle low in August.
There you have it, folks, another important positive freight cycle inflection. For those looking for something similar to the past two cycles, expect a long wait, but this cycle is moving in a positive direction.
This index fell 10% in 2023, and another 3% in 2024. Where it will go in 2025 is a big question, but it is off to a positive start.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
While feeling like a bit of a broken record, we still think private fleet capacity additions are likely the main reason for-hire freight volumes continue to decline. As cost economics reassert their influence, the long-term trend toward outsourcing will eventually return, but the extended 2023 and 2024 downcycle was characterized by an extraordinary post-pandemic insourcing. This is now slowing, which suggests improving for-hire demand trends, but 2025 and 2026 capacity decisions will be characterized by looming industry regulations.
In recent Q4 results, the large truckload fleets reported capacity reductions of about 5% y/y, with little sequential change. New Class 8 tractor sales tell us that overall, capacity is still being added. News like the recent divestiture of Walmart’s Canada fleet to a for-hire provider suggest the insourcing trend may be running its course, but much will depend on the changing regulatory environment.
Perhaps the most important takeaway this month is that while volumes remain soft, capacity has adjusted enough to result in modestly higher rates. In addition to tariffs, this could be a key theme of 2025.
Our outlook through 2026 is detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. We provide monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? ACT Research’s 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index® were 98.8% accurate on average over the past 18 months, and were spot on from 13 months out.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
