Cass Transportation Index Report June 2024

Get the most up-to-date data and insights into shipping volumes and the cost of freight. See how they change each month and understand the market forces behind them.

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Closing in on Balance 

  June 2024 Year-over-year change 2-year stacked change Month-to-month change Month-to-month change (SA*)
Cass Freight Index - Shipments 1.078 -6.0% -10.4% -1.8% -1.8%
Cass Freight Index - Expenditures 3.189 -9.4% -31.6% -3.0% -3.2%
Cass Inferred Freight Rates 2.958 -3.6% NA -1.2% -1.4%
Truckload Linehaul Index 138.90 -2.4% -16.2% -1.0% NA

 

* SA = seasonally adjusted

Cass Freight Index® - Shipments

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index was down 1.8% m/m in June, amid ongoing softness in for-hire demand.

  • The index also fell 1.8% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms to a four-year low. If there’s any silver lining, this is starting to look like a real bottom.
  • On a y/y basis, shipments were 6.0% lower, following a 5.8% y/y decline in May. Amid slowing economic growth, goods demand is still broadly flattish. We see the insourcing of freight via private fleet capacity additions as the main driver of the y/y decline in for-hire volumes.

After rising 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023. With normal seasonality from the June level, the index will fall about 4% y/y in July and about 5% for the full year.


 

Cass Freight Index Shipments June 2024

 

 

See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index

 

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 3.0% m/m in June. The 9.4% y/y decline was similar to the 9.0% drop in May.

With shipments down 1.8% m/m, we infer the 3.0% decline in expenditures included rates down 1.2% m/m in June (see our inferred rates data series below).

  • The index dropped 3.2% m/m (SA), with shipments down 1.8% and rates down 1.4%.  

This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®.

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index fell 19% in 2023, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022. It declined another 16% in 1H’24, and assuming normal seasonal patterns from here, will decline 11%-12% for the full year. 

 

 
Cass Freight Index Expenditures June 2024

 

 

Inferred Freight Rates

The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index declined 3.6% y/y in June, similar to the 3.4% y/y drop in May which followed thirteen straight double-digit declines.

  • Cass Inferred Freight Rates™ fell 1.4% m/m in June, giving up part of the 3.9% jump in May to a six-month high.
  • Based on the normal seasonal pattern, the y/y decline in this index in July will be similar to June.
  • The normal seasonal pattern from here would leave inferred rates down 7% in 2024.

 

Cass Freight Index Inferred Rates June 2024

 

Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.

 

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Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which measures monthly fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, fell 1.0% m/m in June as the soft market balance persists, as shippers wring out a little more savings following a period of stability.

  • The y/y decline of 2.4% widened from 1.7% in May. While this has narrowed from a 15% y/y decline a year ago, it seems unlikely to turn positive quickly.
  • As a broad truckload market indicator, this index includes both spot and contract freight. With spot rates steady over the past year, downward pressure on the larger contract market is lessening, but recent slight increases in spot rates are not yet enough to turn contract rates higher. 


Cass Truckload Linehaul Index June 2024

 

See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index

 

Freight Expectations

The freight market continues to be characterized by overcapacity, and with private fleets engaging in spot activity more than in past cycles, rates remain only slightly above the Q4’23 lows. Owner-operators are resilient as ever, but ongoing private fleet capacity additions are putting less freight into the for-hire market in a slowing economy. We expect the for-hire freight market conditions will improve once excess capacity additions end.

Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm on record, brought a record number of tornadoes into the U.S. for July, and did about $30 billion in damage. A more active hurricane season could be another “different this time” variable this year. After Roadcheck, capacity rose and demand softened beyond normal seasonality, which would make us breathe easier were we shippers. But if forecasts for a bad hurricane season are right, and they are so far, shippers will have plenty else to worry about.

Freight market conditions are usually soft in early July, but DAT’s load/truck ratio rose sharply in the days following Beryl. Of course, the surge will likely be short-lived, but in our view, this signals a market closing in on balance, if still not quite there yet.  

Our outlook through 2026 is detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. ACT Research provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over 40 data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.

How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? For 2023, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 96.9% accurate on average for the 24-month forecast period. 

(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)

 

 
ACT Forecast Accuracy 2023 Shipments

 

 

ACT Research’s 2023 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 96.6% accurate on average over the past 24 months, and 98.5% accurate over the past 12 months. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 143.8 in 2023, precisely in line with our July 2023 estimate. 

 

 
ACT Forecast Accuracy 2023 Cass TL LH Index

 

 

Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.

Tim Denoyer head

About the Author: Tim Denoyer, ACT Research

Tim Denoyer joined ACT Research in 2017 after spending fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries. Tim is a senior analyst leading ACT’s transportation research effort and the primary author of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK. Research associate, Carter Vieth, who joined ACT in early 2020 after graduating from Indiana University, also contributes to the report. This report provides supply-chain professionals with better visibility on the future of pricing and volume in trucking, the core of the $1.2 trillion US freight transportation industry, including TL, LTL, and intermodal. 

Tim also contributes to ACT’s core Classes 4-8 commercial vehicle (CV) data analysis and forecasting; powertrain development, such as electrification analysis; and used truck valuation and forecasting. Tim has supported or led numerous project-based market studies on behalf of clients in his six years with ACT on topics ranging from upcoming emissions and environmental regulations to alternative powertrain cost analyses, to e-commerce and last-mile logistics, to autonomous freight market sizing.  

ACT’s freight research service leverages its expertise in the supply-side economics of transportation and draws upon Tim’s background as an investment analyst, beginning at Prudential and Bear Stearns. Tim was a co-founder of Wolfe Research, one of the leading equity research firms in the investment industry. His experience also includes responsibility for covering the industrial sector of the global equity markets, including with leading investment management company Balyasny Asset Management.

Disclaimer

The material contained herein is intended as general industry commentary. The Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index (“Indexes”), and other content are based upon information that we consider reliable, but Cass does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, reliability, continued availability or completeness of any information or underlying assumptions, and Cass shall have no liability for any errors, omissions or interruptions. Any data on past performance contained in the Indexes is no guarantee as to future performance. The Indexes and other content are not intended to predict actual results, and no assurances are given with respect thereto. Cass makes no warranty, express or implied. Opinions expressed herein as to the Indexes are those of ACT Research and may differ from those of Cass Information Systems Inc. All opinions and estimates are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change.

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