The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index was down 1.8% m/m in June, amid ongoing softness in for-hire demand.
After rising 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023. With normal seasonality from the June level, the index will fall about 4% y/y in July and about 5% for the full year.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 3.0% m/m in June. The 9.4% y/y decline was similar to the 9.0% drop in May.
With shipments down 1.8% m/m, we infer the 3.0% decline in expenditures included rates down 1.2% m/m in June (see our inferred rates data series below).
This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index fell 19% in 2023, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022. It declined another 16% in 1H’24, and assuming normal seasonal patterns from here, will decline 11%-12% for the full year.
The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index declined 3.6% y/y in June, similar to the 3.4% y/y drop in May which followed thirteen straight double-digit declines.
Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which measures monthly fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, fell 1.0% m/m in June as the soft market balance persists, as shippers wring out a little more savings following a period of stability.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
The freight market continues to be characterized by overcapacity, and with private fleets engaging in spot activity more than in past cycles, rates remain only slightly above the Q4’23 lows. Owner-operators are resilient as ever, but ongoing private fleet capacity additions are putting less freight into the for-hire market in a slowing economy. We expect the for-hire freight market conditions will improve once excess capacity additions end.
Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm on record, brought a record number of tornadoes into the U.S. for July, and did about $30 billion in damage. A more active hurricane season could be another “different this time” variable this year. After Roadcheck, capacity rose and demand softened beyond normal seasonality, which would make us breathe easier were we shippers. But if forecasts for a bad hurricane season are right, and they are so far, shippers will have plenty else to worry about.
Freight market conditions are usually soft in early July, but DAT’s load/truck ratio rose sharply in the days following Beryl. Of course, the surge will likely be short-lived, but in our view, this signals a market closing in on balance, if still not quite there yet.
Our outlook through 2026 is detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. ACT Research provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over 40 data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? For 2023, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 96.9% accurate on average for the 24-month forecast period.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
ACT Research’s 2023 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 96.6% accurate on average over the past 24 months, and 98.5% accurate over the past 12 months. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 143.8 in 2023, precisely in line with our July 2023 estimate.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
