The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® was unchanged in March m/m.
The recent 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs will likely lead to more pre-tariff shipping in Q2. However, this will contend with adverse effects from the extreme tariffs on China at this writing, and other tariffs.
Volumes may also be temporarily supported in the coming months as consumers scoop up pre-tariff goods before prices go up. But thereafter, the trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and so far, is trending toward another decline in 2025.
In April, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 4% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 2.8% m/m in March. The y/y decline narrowed to 2.0%, from 4.6% in February.
The y/y decline was more than explained by lower volumes, as shipments fell 5.3%, and we infer rates rose 3.5% y/y in March.
This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index rose 2.8% m/m in March, and 3.7% SA.
While there is a fair amount of mix-related movement each month, the 0.3% average increase in the past 6- and 12-month periods suggests the pricing environment is relatively steady and rising modestly.
Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index would rise about 3% in April and is trending toward a small increase for 2025.
Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.1% m/m in March, after six straight small increases. The index was 4.7% above that August low in March.
This index fell 10% in 2023 and another 3% in 2024. Where it will go in 2025 is a big question, but it is off to a positive start.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
One of the most frequently asked questions this month is, what proportion of freight is international trade? Even with good border and port data, it’s tough to pinpoint. But triangulating a number of expert opinions (thanks to Dr. Jason Miller of Michigan State in particular), the answer is in the 20%-25% range—not a small niche.
We expect a few more months of brisk demand for pre-tariff goods, followed by a tariff adjustment period with lower goods demand. It’s been 39 months since the first y/y decline of this cycle, so a recovery can only be so far away. But freight is very much in the crosshairs of the trade war.
Our forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? Their 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 98.8% accurate on average from 18 months out. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 139.3 in 2024, precisely in line with our December 2023 estimate.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
